Stonks Run

Systematic Trend & Momentum Screen · S&P 500 + S&P 400

Guide

Momentum vs. Value Investing

This site publishes two lists from the same underlying scan, ranked by two different philosophies. That is a deliberate choice, and understanding why they differ is more useful than either list on its own.

The two approaches represent a genuine, long-running disagreement about what makes a stock worth owning. Neither has won. Both have produced spectacular records and spectacular drawdowns, in different decades and different market conditions.

The momentum case

Momentum investing rests on an observation that made academics uncomfortable for years because it should not work under a strictly efficient-markets view: stocks that have performed well recently have tended, on average, to continue performing well over intermediate horizons. The effect has been documented across decades, across countries, and across asset classes.

The behavioral explanations generally center on under-reaction. Information diffuses through a market gradually rather than instantly. Analysts revise estimates in increments. Institutions accumulate positions over weeks because moving size takes time. Investors sell winners too early to lock in gains — the disposition effect — which suppresses price temporarily and leaves room for continued advance.

What momentum explicitly does not care about is whether the stock is cheap. A momentum framework will happily buy something trading at 60 times earnings if the trend and relative strength are strong, on the reasoning that valuation is a poor short-term timing tool. That is not carelessness; it is the strategy's actual thesis.

Where momentum hurts

Momentum's failure mode is abrupt and well documented. Sharp market reversals punish momentum portfolios severely, because the strategy is by construction concentrated in whatever has recently run — exactly the names most vulnerable when sentiment turns. Momentum crashes are not gentle, and they cluster precisely when investors can least tolerate them.

The value case

Value investing rests on a different premise: that a security has an intrinsic worth derivable from its earnings, assets, and cash flows, and that price fluctuates around that worth — sometimes wildly. Buying meaningfully below intrinsic value provides both a return opportunity and a margin of safety when estimates prove wrong.

The behavioral explanation here is roughly the mirror image of momentum's: over-reaction. Markets extrapolate recent bad news too far into the future, punishing companies for problems that are temporary, cyclical, or already priced in several times over.

Value's tools are ratios and quality measures — price-to-earnings, PEG, profit margins, debt levels, return on capital. These say nothing about timing, which is precisely value's weakness.

Where value hurts

A cheap stock can stay cheap for years, and "cheap" is frequently a correct assessment of a deteriorating business rather than a mispricing — the classic value trap. Value investing also demands a tolerance for extended periods of underperformance that most people badly overestimate in themselves before experiencing it.

Side by side

MomentumValue
Core premiseTrends persist; markets under-react to new informationPrice reverts to intrinsic worth; markets over-react to bad news
Typical holding periodWeeks to monthsMonths to years
Primary evidencePrice action, volume, relative strengthEarnings, cash flow, balance sheet, valuation ratios
Attitude to valuationLargely indifferent short-termCentral
Attitude to price trendCentralOften contrarian — weakness may be the opportunity
Characteristic failureSharp reversals; crowded-trade unwindsValue traps; long stretches of underperformance
Demands most from youDiscipline to cut losers quicklyPatience to hold through being wrong-looking

Why both lists share the same trend requirement

You may notice something that looks inconsistent: our value-leaning list still ranks primarily by Trend Template compliance. That is intentional, and it reflects a specific stance worth making explicit rather than hiding in the ranking logic.

A purely mechanical value screen surfaces a great many companies that are cheap because they are genuinely deteriorating. Requiring a healthy technical trend alongside reasonable fundamentals is a way of asking for evidence that the market has begun to recognize whatever value is there — sometimes described as waiting for confirmation rather than trying to catch the exact bottom.

This means our second list is not a deep-value or contrarian screen and should not be mistaken for one. A traditional value investor hunting for maximum discount would reasonably object that requiring price strength filters out exactly the deepest bargains. That objection is correct. If unloved, beaten-down, statistically cheap names are what you are looking for, this screen will not surface them, and you should use a different tool.

What the difference between the two lists tells you. When the same names appear near the top of both, it means a stock is showing strong technical momentum and defensible fundamentals — the profile CANSLIM was originally describing. When the lists diverge sharply, that is usually informative about the market itself: momentum leadership concentrated in names with weak or unavailable fundamentals is a different market environment than one where both lists agree.

Choosing between them — or not

The honest answer is that this is not primarily an analytical question. It is a question about time horizon, temperament, and what kind of being-wrong you can actually tolerate without abandoning your process at the worst moment.

Momentum demands the discipline to exit quickly and repeatedly, accepting many small losses. Value demands the patience to look wrong for extended periods while holding a position. People routinely overestimate their capacity for both, and the strategy that fails is usually not the one with worse historical numbers — it is the one abandoned partway through its worst stretch.